Predictions for 2022
What better way to kick off a new year and a new Substack than predictions about the future? I’ve written predictions before, but this is the first time I’ve tried publishing them. I see these predictions as an attempt to calibrate my own judgment, not as something that other people should take seriously.
Estimates are intended to capture what I think will happen in 2022, not the importance of a broader trend. For example, I might be entirely convinced that climate change is a real trend but predict next year’s mean temperature being higher than last year’s at close to evens, because random variation may be high year to year.
I wrote these predictions well before the end of the year and delayed posting them. Some things (most notably the severity of illness from the Omicron strain) have changed between me writing the predictions and posting them.
I’m including various predictions at 50%, which is intended to record that I don’t think I know enough about those aspects. Similarly, a prediction of 60% means I think I know almost nothing about a topic but I’m willing to give it a slight edge.
Covid-19
Additional domestic restrictions of some kind imposed in England
by end of January: 90%
In 2022: 99%
UK government mandates full closure of pubs and restaurants (excluding take-away service) in England for some period of time > 1 week
by end of January: 60%
In 2022: 75%
Some English citizens in lockdown (only allowed to leave their home for specified list of purposes) for some period of time
by end of January: 25%
In 2022: 60%
Patients admitted to hospital per day (7-day moving average) doesn’t exceed:
2000
In January: 75%
In 2022: 50%
1500
In January: 60%
In 2022: 10%
1000
In January: 25%
In 2022: 5%
UK 1st dose vaccination rate (population 12 and over) exceeds:
90%
In January: 95%
92%
In January: 40%
In 1st quarter: 50%
95%
In January: 10%
In 1st quarter: 40%
Omicron variant is widely regarded to have
a lower case fatality rate than Delta:
By end January: 40%
By end Q1: 60%
UK rolls out a vaccination programme involving a vaccine targeting a different strain (not original Wuhan variant)
By end Q1: 25%
In 2022: 75%
A diagnostic test or treatment for long Covid will be approved in the UK during 2022: 60%
At some point in 2022:
Germany sees daily case rate exceed 75k (averaged over a week): 40%
China sees daily case rate exceed 5k (averaged over a week): 50%
Greece sees daily case rate exceed 7.5k (averaged over a week): 40%
UK politics
Boris Johnson remains leader of conservative party
For 1st 6 months: 75%
For all of 2022: 60%
Keir Starmer remains leader of labour party
For 1st 6 months: 95%
For all of 2022: 90%
There is no general election in the UK: 90%
Local elections / by-elections in first 6 months show a clear swing against the Conservatives: 90%
No clear evidence comes to light (photographic or on-the-record named source personally witnessing) of Conservatives attending an indoor party (more than 8 people) in Winter 2020/21
Boris Johnson: 75%
Any member of cabinet at the time: 50%
Supply chain disruption credibly linked to Brexit is no worse in 2022 than in 2021: 80%
At least one new trade deal between the UK and a country >1million population: 90%
UK has no new trade deal with any of US, China, India or Brazil: 75%
Inflation becomes a significant political issue in 2022 (explicitly framed as an economic phenomenon, not simply complaints about the cost of living): 75%
UK does not enter recession during 2022: 90%
US politics
A bill nominally claiming to be the “build back better” bill is passed into law: 60%
2022 mid-term elections:
Democrats lose control of the senate: 90%
Democrats lose control of the house: 50%
Donald Trump is not allowed back onto Twitter: 75%
No new anti-censorship (e.g. proudly including Donald Trump) social network launches that maintains 1m+ regular users: 75%
Interest in Donald Trump (as measured by Google Trends) remains lower than at any time during his presidency: 75%
No credible non-partisan news sources report that Donald Trump is monetarily funding particular candidates or particular issues in the mid-terms: 75%
US does not enter recession during 2022: 90%
Joe Biden’s approval rating:
Remains net negative throughout 2022: 80%
Remains above throughout 2022: 60%
World politics
No military contact (people dead non-accidentally) between China and Taiwan: 90%
No new armed conflict involving a NATO power: 75%
Direct flights between the UK and China resume: 75%
Travel from the UK to China remains very difficult (e.g. 14 day quarantine) throughout 2022: 60%
No new country establishes full diplomatic relations with Taiwan: 90%
Winter Olympics goes ahead on schedule: 99%
Football World Cup goes ahead on schedule: 95%
Technology
Level 3 self-driving cars are not being sold commercially and used anywhere in the world: 90%
VR headsets remain niche: 80%
No widespread major improvement in video call technology: 75%
No new country declares bitcoin to be legal tender: 90%